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#Kindergarten jump start program south paris maine full
Going for the current deal now and hoping to negotiate something better in a second round is a much more difficult task: Given the full guarantee of the €100 billion principal via the collateral private sector creditors, the credit risk for private creditors would now be limited to the coupon payments, a paltry €5 billion per year. Greece should put a halt to this unfair debt-exchange offer and, under threat of outright default, negotiate a better deal (with no credit sweeteners) that offers at least a 50% debt relief to the country. So, doing the math right and considering a likely rather than optimistic exit yield, the true debt relief for Greece out of this deal is at best close to zero or, at worst, possibly an NPV increase in its debt burden. And even that 21% headline is not a true measure of debt relief as a massive sweetener for creditors in the form of a Brady-style principal collateral guarantee will increase Greece’s gross public debt by another €30 billion. Argentina in 1999-2001 fell into the same trap of deficit, austerity, deeper recession, depression, higher deficit, greater insolvency.įirst, the recent debt exchange deal negotiated to bail-in Greece’s private creditors was an outright rip-off for the country: The net present value (NPV) debt reduction was formally only 21% when the country needs at least 50% debt relief, based on RGE’s analysis of debt sustainability. Indeed, the latest economic data suggest that the Greek recession is becoming a near depression, with GDP expected to fall by over 7% this year and with forward-looking indicators of economic activity (such as the PMI, which is at a level of 43) suggesting a deepening recession. And while fiscal austerity and structural reforms are necessary to restore medium-term debt sustainability and growth, in the short run they will lead to an even deeper recession, thus making the deficit and debt even more unsustainable. Greece’s public debt is heading toward a level of 200% of GDP in two years’ time. Greece is now in a vicious circle of insolvency, lack of competitiveness and ever-deepening depression, exacerbated by draconian fiscal austerity that is making the recession much worse. Why a Default/Debt Reduction and an Exit From the EZ Are Necessary and Desirable Moreover, there are historical precedents for countries successfully taking the route of an orderly default on unsustainable foreign liabilities and exit from unsustainable currency pegs and/or currency boards.Default and exit will be painful and costly, but the alternative of a decade-long deflation and depression would be much worse, economically, financially and socially.Such official finance to Greece and other EZ members under stress will limit the contagion and the losses for other periphery and core creditor countries, and will ensure that the domestic Greek financial system and economy does not suffer a chaotic implosion.
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limit the collateral damage to its own economy and financial markets that this exit would imply) if orderly mechanisms are used and appropriate official finance is provided. Greece can exit the monetary union in an orderly and negotiated manner (i.e.Exit will require a conversion of euro liabilities into the new currency to limit the balance sheet effects that the depreciation of the new national currency will entail.It is time for the country to default in an orderly manner on its public debt, exit the eurozone (EZ) and return to the drachma to rapidly restore solvency, competitiveness and growth.
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